{ "items": [ { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "In FY2024, 16 federal agencies reported an estimated $162 billion in improper payments across 68 programs, with about 84% ($135 billion) due to overpayments; cumulative improper payments since FY2003 total about $2.8 trillion.", "source": "U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-25-107753", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "FY2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "GAO notes the $162B covers only a subset of federal programs, so true total may be higher.", "addedDate": "2026-06-30", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 1, "claim": "Universal voter registration was first proposed to Congress by President Jimmy Carter in his March 1977 election reform message.", "source": "The American Presidency Project (UC Santa Barbara)", "url": "https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/election-reform-message-the-congress", "type": "Government archive (primary)", "published": "1977", "asOf": "1977", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Verifies the brief's presidential-lineage claim; Carter, a Democrat from Georgia.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Direct care workers earned a median wage of $17.36/hour in 2024 with median annual earnings just under $26,000; home care workers earn under $23,000 and nearly three in five rely on public assistance.", "source": "PHI, Direct Care Workers in the United States: Key Facts 2025", "url": "https://www.phinational.org/resource/direct-care-workers-in-the-united-states-key-facts-2025/", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "37 percent of U.S. adults could not cover a $400 emergency expense with cash or its equivalent.", "source": "Federal Reserve, Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED)", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/sheddataviz/unexpectedexpenses.html", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2026", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Nearly half (48%) of private-sector employees ages 18-64, about 57 million people, work for an employer offering no retirement plan.", "source": "AARP Public Policy Institute", "url": "https://press.aarp.org/2022-7-13-New-AARP-Research-Nearly-Half-Americans-Do-Not-Have-Access-to-Retirement-Plans-at-Work", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "BLS access measures run higher (~69-70%) on a different definition; the AARP figure counts employer-offered plans.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Child poverty (Supplemental Poverty Measure) fell to a record-low 5.2% in 2021 under the expanded Child Tax Credit, then more than doubled to 12.4% in 2022 when it lapsed, the largest single-year increase on record.", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau", "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2023/09/supplemental-poverty-measure.html", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2021-2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The capstone natural experiment of the Foundations pillar.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "BLS projects roughly 649,300 openings a year in construction and extraction occupations, and health care and social assistance as the fastest-growing sector, adding about 2.0 million jobs from 2024 to 2034.", "source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2026/article/industry-and-occupational-employment-projections-overview.htm", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2026", "asOf": "2024-2034 projections", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Backs the education brief's multiple-paths plank; construction openings via the Occupational Outlook Handbook.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "California high-speed rail was sold to voters in 2008 at $33 billion with trains by 2020; estimates now run up to $231 billion, with no high-speed track in service.", "source": "Governing (journalism); California HSR Authority figures", "url": "https://www.governing.com/magazine/californias-failure-to-complete-high-speed-rail", "type": "Journalism", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2026", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "The Pillar 2 capacity-failure case study; cost range spans CHSRA and federal estimates.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "Goldman Sachs finds that matching the land-use rules of the least-restrictive quarter of cities would add about 2.5 million homes in a decade, erasing roughly two-thirds of the estimated 3-4 million home shortage.", "source": "Goldman Sachs Research", "url": "https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-outlook-for-us-housing-supply-and-affordability", "type": "Financial research", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "Air pollution causes on the order of 200,000 early deaths each year in the United States (MIT); estimates across studies range from about 100,000 upward depending on sources counted.", "source": "MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment", "url": "https://news.mit.edu/2013/study-air-pollution-causes-200000-early-deaths-each-year-in-the-us-0829", "type": "Peer-reviewed (university)", "published": "2013", "asOf": "2005 emissions data; later studies vary", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "The climate brief calibrates to ~200,000 and notes the range.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 6, "claim": "NIH funding contributed to published research behind every one of the 210 new drugs approved by the FDA from 2010 to 2016, totaling over $100 billion; more than 90% funded basic science on drug targets.", "source": "Cleary et al., PNAS", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1715368115", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2018", "asOf": "2010-2016", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 6, "claim": "PJM capacity prices rose roughly elevenfold in two years; the independent market monitor attributed 63% of the 2025/26 auction increase to data centers, about $9.3 billion recovered from customers.", "source": "IEEFA analysis of PJM / Monitoring Analytics", "url": "https://ieefa.org/resources/projected-data-center-growth-spurs-pjm-capacity-prices-factor-10", "type": "Nonpartisan analysis", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025-2026 delivery year", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Grounds the cost-causation plank for large computing loads.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "In a six-swing-state study with arguments briefed on both sides, bipartisan majorities favored the whole immigration package at once: path to citizenship, stronger border, employer verification, and more legal work visas.", "source": "Program for Public Consultation (University of Maryland)", "url": "https://publicconsultation.org/immigration/swing-state-survey-majorities-favor-path-to-citizenship-over-mass-deportation-while-strengthening-the-border/", "type": "Academic survey research", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The front-door package finding.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 10, "claim": "CISA, NSA, and FBI jointly assess that PRC state-sponsored Volt Typhoon actors have compromised and maintained persistent access inside U.S. critical infrastructure (communications, energy, transportation, water) to pre-position for disruption.", "source": "CISA Cybersecurity Advisory AA24-038A", "url": "https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/cybersecurity-advisories/aa24-038a", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The centerpiece intrusion evidence for Security Is Resilience.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 10, "claim": "Active U.S. drug shortages peaked at a record 323 in early 2024 and remained above 200 through 2025.", "source": "ASHP Drug Shortages Statistics", "url": "https://www.ashp.org/drug-shortages/shortage-resources/drug-shortages-statistics", "type": "Professional society data", "published": "2025", "asOf": "Q1 2024 - 2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "Studies of the 1986 IRCA legalization found legal status raised wages for the legalized (roughly 6% and more via occupational mobility), and a 2025 study found each legalized person accounted for about one later legal admission, mostly immediate family, through 2019.", "source": "Journal of Labor Economics (Kossoudji & Cobb-Clark); 2025 chain-migration study", "url": "https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/339611", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2002 / 2025", "asOf": "1986-2019", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "Linked study covers legalization wage gains; pin the 2025 chain-migration paper URL when published citation is located.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "A Campbell systematic review of ten randomized trials (1,880 offenders) found face-to-face restorative justice conferences produced significantly less repeat offending than standard prosecution, with the largest effects on violent crime, and higher victim satisfaction with fewer post-traumatic stress symptoms.", "source": "Strang, Sherman et al., Campbell Systematic Reviews", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.4073/csr.2013.12", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Peer-reviewed (systematic review of RCTs)", "published": "2013", "asOf": "10 randomized trials, 2-year reconviction follow-up", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Grounds the restorative-justice plank in the justice brief.", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "A citywide cluster randomized trial in Philadelphia (541 vacant lots) found cleaning and greening blighted vacant land significantly reduced nearby crime, with gun violence down about 29 percent in neighborhoods below the poverty line.", "source": "Branas et al., PNAS", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1718503115", "type": "Peer-reviewed (randomized trial)", "published": "2018", "asOf": "2013-2015 trial period", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Grounds the safe-city plank on remediating blighted vacant land.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "Temporary streetlights randomly assigned to New York City public housing developments cut nighttime outdoor index crimes by at least 36 percent, with effects persisting in follow-up.", "source": "Chalfin, Hansen, Lerner & Parker, NBER", "url": "https://www.nber.org/papers/w25798", "type": "Peer-reviewed (randomized experiment)", "published": "2019", "asOf": "2016 experiment", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Grounds the safe-city lighting plank.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "A systematic review of the lead-crime literature finds childhood lead exposure raises later delinquency and arrest; Aizer & Currie found each 1 ug/dL increase in preschool blood lead raised the risk of juvenile detention, and Reyes credits the leaded-gasoline phase-out with a large share of the 1990s violent-crime decline.", "source": "Systematic review (Environment International / PMC)", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10393136/", "type": "Peer-reviewed (systematic review)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "Studies through 2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Grounds lead abatement as crime prevention.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "A randomized trial of 1,634 disadvantaged Chicago high schoolers found an eight-week summer job cut violent-crime arrests by 43 percent over 16 months, with most of the effect after the program ended; Becoming a Man CBT trials cut violent-crime arrests 45-50 percent during the program year.", "source": "Heller, Science", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.1257809", "type": "Peer-reviewed (randomized trial)", "published": "2014", "asOf": "2012 cohort, 16-month follow-up", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Grounds the teenage-summer plank; BAM figures from the follow-on Heller et al. trials.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "A Campbell systematic review of 24 quasi-experimental evaluations found focused deterrence produced significant, moderate crime reductions, with gun violence down about 26 percent across 13 studies; effects are smaller in the most rigorous designs.", "source": "Braga, Weisburd & Turchan, Campbell Systematic Reviews", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/cl2.1051", "type": "Peer-reviewed (systematic review)", "published": "2019", "asOf": "24 evaluations through 2017", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "Quasi-experimental, not randomized; the brief states the caveat.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "Sandy Springs, GA incorporated in 2005 outsourcing nearly all city services except police and fire (the famous contract-city model), then in 2019 brought most services back in-house when bids stopped delivering value, projecting $13.5M in five-year savings; the city’s own reporting puts actual insourcing savings near $26M, almost double.", "source": "City of Sandy Springs (public-private partnership history); Rough Draft Atlanta (2019 decision)", "url": "https://www.sandyspringsga.gov/public-private-partnership/", "sourceNote": "See also roughdraftatlanta.com, May 2019.", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2005-2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The Pillar 2 counter-example: structure as tool, not creed - outsource when it delivers, insource when it does not, measured in the open.", "addedDate": "2026-07-03", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "In 2024, 47.9 million people lived in food-insecure households (13.7% of households); 18.4% of households with children were food insecure at some time during the year.", "source": "USDA Economic Research Service, Household Food Security in the United States in 2024", "url": "https://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/pub-details?pubid=113622", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Final report in the current series; the annual survey's future is uncertain, which is why the brief includes a keep-the-count plank.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "On the 2024 NAEP reading assessment, 40% of 4th graders scored below the NAEP Basic level, the largest share since 2002; only 30% scored proficient or above.", "source": "National Assessment of Educational Progress (The Nation's Report Card), 2024 Reading Assessment", "url": "https://www.nationsreportcard.gov/reports/reading/2024/g4_8/", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Below Basic means students struggle to determine the meaning of words in context or identify a story's main idea.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "59 million family caregivers provided 49.5 billion hours of unpaid care to adults in 2024, valued at $1.01 trillion, more than total federal, state, and local Medicaid spending that year ($932 billion).", "source": "AARP Public Policy Institute, Valuing the Invaluable 2026 Update", "url": "https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/ltss/family-caregiving/valuing-the-invaluable-2026-update/", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2026", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Value based on an average $20.41 per caregiving hour; equal to the work of 23.8 million full-time workers.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "The immigration court backlog stands at about 3.2 million pending cases, with roughly 4,500 cases per judge and multi-year waits for hearings.", "source": "TRAC (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse), Syracuse University", "url": "https://tracreports.org/phptools/immigration/backlog/", "type": "Research nonprofit (court records)", "published": "2026", "asOf": "2026", "confidence": "High", "notes": "TRAC compiles case-by-case records obtained from the immigration courts under FOIA; updated monthly.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "The gross tax gap, tax legally owed but not paid, is projected at $696 billion for tax year 2022, with about $606 billion never recovered after enforcement.", "source": "IRS, Tax Gap Projections for Tax Year 2022 (Publication 5869)", "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/p5869.pdf", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "TY2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Underreporting accounts for $539 billion of the gross gap. Anchor figure for the collect-what-is-owed financing family in The Ledger.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "CBO's single-payer analysis: federal health subsidies in 2030 would rise by $1.5 to $3.0 trillion, while total national health expenditures would change between a $0.7 trillion decrease and a $0.3 trillion increase, with everyone covered.", "source": "Congressional Budget Office, Working Paper 2020-08 and companion economic analysis", "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56811", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2020", "asOf": "2030 projection", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The honest two-sided accounting behind the healthcare brief: a historic shift from premiums to the federal ledger, not a comparable increase in what the country spends on care.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "EPA's 2023 report estimates the social cost of carbon at about $190 per metric ton of CO2 (2% discount rate), roughly four times the prior government-wide estimate.", "source": "EPA, Report on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases (2023), via the Harvard Environmental & Energy Law Program tracker", "url": "https://eelp.law.harvard.edu/tracker/the-social-cost-of-carbon/", "type": "Government (primary), academic mirror", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Methods follow 2017 National Academies recommendations. The original EPA page was later taken down, which is why the tracker link is used; the keep-the-count principle applies.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "Global fossil fuel subsidies reached $7 trillion in 2022 (7.1% of world GDP); 82% is implicit subsidy, the unpriced damage of air pollution and warming absorbed by the public.", "source": "IMF Working Paper WP/23/169, Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data: 2023 Update", "url": "https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2023/08/24/fossil-fuel-subsidies-surged-to-record-7-trillion", "type": "International institution", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Authors: Black, Liu, Parry, Vernon.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Employer power in imperfectly competitive labor markets holds U.S. wages roughly 20 percent below the level a fully competitive market would pay.", "source": "U.S. Treasury, The State of Labor Market Competition (2022)", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/State-of-Labor-Market-Competition-2022.pdf", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Prepared with DOJ, DOL, and the FTC.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Average markups charged by U.S. firms rose from 21% above cost in 1980 to 61% by 2016, and average profit rates rose from 1% to 8% of sales, driven by the top of the distribution.", "source": "De Loecker, Eeckhout & Unger, The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications, Quarterly Journal of Economics (2020)", "url": "https://academic.oup.com/qje/article-abstract/135/2/561/5714769", "type": "Peer-reviewed research", "published": "2020", "asOf": "2016", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "About 18% of U.S. workers, roughly 30 million people, are bound by noncompete clauses; the FTC estimated its ban would raise earnings $400-488 billion over a decade. The 2024 rule was blocked in court, leaving the fix to Congress and the states.", "source": "Federal Trade Commission, Noncompete Rule fact sheet and final rule record", "url": "https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2024/04/ftc-announces-rule-banning-noncompetes", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The evidentiary record stands regardless of the rule's litigation fate; the Workforce Mobility Act (ask m2) is the statutory vehicle.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Credit card late fees cost American families more than $14 billion a year, and overdraft fees an estimated $12.6 billion at their 2019 peak.", "source": "Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, credit card late fee and overdraft rulemakings", "url": "https://www.consumerfinance.gov/about-us/newsroom/cfpb-bans-excessive-credit-card-late-fees-lowers-typical-fee-from-32-to-8/", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2022-2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The late-fee rule was later vacated in court; the fee magnitudes are from the CFPB's documented record.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Several U.S. industries cause more air-pollution damage than the value they add to the economy; coal-fired electricity's damages run 0.8 to 5.6 times its value added.", "source": "Muller, Mendelsohn & Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the United States Economy, American Economic Review (2011)", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.101.5.1649", "type": "Peer-reviewed research", "published": "2011", "asOf": "2002 data", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The foundational cost-shifting result behind the make-prices-tell-the-truth plank. Nordhaus later received the Nobel for the underlying framework.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "The U.S. adopted a national strategy in January 2023 to build natural capital accounts, putting land, water, air, and resources on the nation's books, with BEA pilot accounts underway and full implementation planned through 2036.", "source": "White House OSTP/OMB/Commerce, National Strategy to Develop Statistics for Environmental-Economic Decisions", "url": "https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Natural-Capital-Accounting-Strategy-final.pdf", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Basis of the count-what-matters plank: fund it, codify it, publish a beyond-GDP dashboard alongside the quarterly numbers.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 1, "claim": "Automatic voter registration increased registrations everywhere it was implemented, with gains of 9 to 94 percent across the first seven states plus DC, in states large and small and of both parties.", "source": "Brennan Center for Justice, AVR Impact on State Voter Registration", "url": "https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/avr-impact-state-voter-registration", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2019", "asOf": "2019", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Source of the brief's first-eight-jurisdictions claim; the report's estimates underlie the roughly 2.2 million added registrants figure.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 1, "claim": "In Oregon's first-in-the-nation AVR rollout, 36 percent of people registered automatically went on to vote in 2016, turnout rose an estimated 2 to 3 percentage points, and the new electorate was younger and more income-diverse.", "source": "Center for American Progress, Who Votes With Automatic Voter Registration?", "url": "https://www.americanprogress.org/article/votes-automatic-voter-registration/", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2017", "asOf": "2016", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Supports the brief's honest turnout caveat: registration is the gate, not the guarantee; effects on turnout are real but modest.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "The median first-time homebuyer is now 40 years old and first-time buyers are just 21 percent of the market, both the most extreme readings on record.", "source": "National Association of Realtors, 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers", "url": "https://www.nar.realtor/press-releases/first-time-home-buyer-share-falls-to-historic-low-of-21-median-age-rises-to-40", "type": "Industry survey (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024-2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "First-time buyer median age was in the late 20s in the 1980s.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "A record 22.6 million renter households, half of all renters, are cost-burdened, spending more than 30 percent of income on housing and utilities; 83 percent of renters earning under $30,000 are burdened.", "source": "Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, America's Rental Housing / State of the Nation's Housing", "url": "https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/press-releases/new-report-shows-rent-unaffordable-half-renters-cost-burdens-surge-record-levels", "type": "Academic research center", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2022-2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Units renting under $1,000 in real terms fell more than 30 percent from 2013 to 2023.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "Institutional investors own about 2 percent of single-family rentals nationally, but roughly 25 percent in metro Atlanta, 21 percent in Jacksonville, 18 percent in Charlotte, and 15 percent in Tampa.", "source": "U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-24-106643, Institutional Investment in Single-Family Homes", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106643", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The evidentiary basis of the brief's honesty on investors: not the national cause of the shortage, but intensely concentrated where they operate, including Georgia.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 9, "claim": "Social isolation raises the risk of premature death by 29 percent, an effect comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes a day, and about half of U.S. adults report experiencing loneliness.", "source": "U.S. Surgeon General's Advisory, Our Epidemic of Loneliness and Isolation (2023)", "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK595227/", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Also documents elevated risks of heart disease, stroke, dementia, depression, and anxiety. The health case behind treating connection as infrastructure.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 9, "claim": "An independent benefit-cost analysis found every $1 of federal taxes invested in AmeriCorps and Senior Corps returns $17.30 to society, members, and government.", "source": "ICF for Voices for National Service, AmeriCorps and Senior Corps: Quantifying the Impact", "url": "https://voicesforservice.org/research-and-reports/national-service-produces-171-return-on-investment/", "type": "Research (commissioned benefit-cost analysis)", "published": "2020", "asOf": "2020", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "Commissioned by a service-advocacy coalition, so treated as supporting rather than load-bearing; AmeriCorps' own program-level ROI studies (disaster response about 12 to 1) point the same direction.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 9, "claim": "In a 10-site randomized trial of the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe program for disconnected youth, participants three years later had earnings 20 percent ($2,266) higher and GED or diploma attainment 22 points higher than the control group.", "source": "MDRC, Staying on Course: Three-Year Results of the National Guard Youth ChalleNGe Evaluation", "url": "https://www.mdrc.org/work/publications/staying-course", "type": "Peer-reviewed RCT evaluation", "published": "2011", "asOf": "2011", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The strongest causal evidence that structured, paid service programs change trajectories for young people, the population a universal term of service would reach.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 9, "claim": "The share of Americans who say most people can be trusted fell from 46 percent in 1972 to 34 percent today, and trust in the federal government to do the right thing has fallen from 77 percent six decades ago to 22 percent.", "source": "Pew Research Center, Americans' Trust in One Another (2025); General Social Survey trend", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/2025/05/08/americans-trust-in-one-another/", "type": "Survey research (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The social-trust baseline behind the pillar's claim that connection and shared institutions have frayed.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "U.S. health spending reached $4.9 trillion in 2023, $14,570 per person and 17.6 percent of GDP, roughly double comparable wealthy countries.", "source": "CMS, National Health Expenditure Accounts (2023)", "url": "https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/nhe-fact-sheet", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "U.S. insurers and providers spent $812 billion on administration, 34.2 percent of national health spending, about $2,497 per person versus $551 in Canada.", "source": "Himmelstein, Campbell & Woolhandler, Health Care Administrative Costs in the United States and Canada, Annals of Internal Medicine (2020)", "url": "https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M19-2818", "type": "Peer-reviewed research", "published": "2020", "asOf": "2017", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The administrative-waste figure behind the brief's redirection argument; the authors are single-payer advocates, but the accounting was published in a leading peer-reviewed journal.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "About 4 in 10 U.S. adults, roughly 100 million people, carry medical or dental debt, owing at least $220 billion in total.", "source": "KFF Health Care Debt Survey and Peterson-KFF analysis", "url": "https://www.kff.org/health-costs/kff-health-care-debt-survey/", "type": "Survey research (primary)", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "About 1 in 5 debt holders do not expect to ever pay it off.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "The U.S. ranks last of ten wealthy countries in overall health system performance while spending the most; top performers Australia and the Netherlands spend the least as a share of GDP.", "source": "Commonwealth Fund, Mirror, Mirror 2024", "url": "https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2024/sep/mirror-mirror-2024", "type": "Research nonprofit (comparative study)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "70 measures across access, care process, administrative efficiency, equity, and outcomes.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "27.1 million people (8.0 percent) had no health insurance at any point in 2024, about a million more than in 2023.", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2024 (P60-288)", "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2025/demo/p60-288.html", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Traditional Medicare does not cover dental, hearing, or vision care; close to half of beneficiaries report difficulty hearing while only 8 percent used hearing services, and out-of-pocket costs for users average about $900 a year for dental or hearing care.", "source": "KFF, Dental, Hearing, and Vision Costs and Coverage Among Medicare Beneficiaries", "url": "https://www.kff.org/health-costs/dental-hearing-and-vision-costs-and-coverage-among-medicare-beneficiaries-in-traditional-medicare-and-medicare-advantage/", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2021", "asOf": "2018-2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The evidentiary basis for the comprehensive standard: even Medicare itself fails the teeth-eyes-ears test today.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "The Montreal Protocol, ratified by every country on Earth, phased out nearly 99% of banned ozone-depleting substances; EPA's health model projects it will prevent 443 million skin cancer cases, 2.3 million skin cancer deaths, and 63 million cataract cases among Americans born 1890-2100.", "source": "WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022; Madronich et al., ACS Earth and Space Chemistry (EPA AHEF model)", "url": "https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.1c00183", "type": "Peer-reviewed research (government model)", "published": "2021-2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The strongest modern proof that government regulation can solve a planetary problem: science identified it, regulation fixed it, industry innovated substitutes, and the treaty achieved universal ratification.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "The ozone layer is on track to recover to 1980 levels around 2040 for most of the world, 2045 over the Arctic, and 2066 over Antarctica; the Kigali Amendment's phasedown of HFC refrigerants is projected to avoid 0.3-0.5 degrees C of warming by 2100.", "source": "WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2022 (NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory)", "url": "https://csl.noaa.gov/assessments/ozone/2022/executivesummary/", "type": "Government (primary, quadrennial scientific assessment)", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The precedent for planetary-scale environmental repair: avoided HFC emissions total about 420 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent, more than ten years of current global CO2 emissions.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "The COVID-19 vaccination program averted an estimated 3.2 million deaths and 18.5 million hospitalizations in the U.S. from December 2020 through November 2022, saving over $1 trillion; without it the country would have seen roughly 4 times more deaths.", "source": "Commonwealth Fund / Yale School of Public Health modeling analysis", "url": "https://www.commonwealthfund.org/blog/2022/two-years-covid-vaccines-prevented-millions-deaths-hospitalizations", "type": "Research nonprofit (peer-reviewed model)", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Delivery proof across administrations: Operation Warp Speed launched under a Republican administration; the rollout ran under a Democratic one. Credited plainly, both ways.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 6, "claim": "Operation Warp Speed obligated more than $10 billion (potential value at least $18 billion) across six vaccine candidates, using purchase guarantees and parallelized trial and manufacturing stages to compress a roughly 10-year development process into about 11 months.", "source": "U.S. Government Accountability Office, GAO-21-319, Operation Warp Speed", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-21-319", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2021", "asOf": "2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The textbook public-return case: taxpayers funded the research (the leading vaccine was co-developed with NIH), de-risked manufacturing, and bought the doses, while patents and post-emergency pricing power stayed private.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-04", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "In fiscal year 2025, 15 federal agencies reported an estimated $186 billion in improper payments across 64 programs, an increase of about $24 billion over the prior fiscal year, with cumulative improper payment estimates since FY2003 totaling roughly $3 trillion.", "source": "U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO)", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-26-108694", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2026", "asOf": "FY2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Estimates cover only 64 programs (a subset of federal spending), so the figure understates total government-wide improper payments; supports 'government that works' program-integrity claims.", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "The federal government's estimated improper payments fell from $236 billion in FY2023 to $162 billion in FY2024, a decline attributed mainly to the winding down of pandemic-related programs.", "source": "Peter G. Peterson Foundation", "url": "https://www.pgpf.org/article/how-much-can-the-administration-really-save-by-cutting-down-on-improper-payments/", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Think tank", "published": "2025", "asOf": "FY2024", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "Nonpartisan fiscal explainer summarizing GAO data; underlying figures are GAO estimates, and PGPF notes improper payments are not a primary driver of the structural deficit.", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Chattanooga's public utility EPB built America's first citywide gigabit fiber network in 2010 for about $220 million; an independent university study found $2.69 billion in community benefit over the first decade and about 9,516 jobs supported (roughly 40% of Hamilton County's job growth in the period).", "source": "Lobo (UT Chattanooga, Rollins College of Business) decade study, via EPB", "url": "https://epb.com/newsroom/press-releases/new-economic-study-documents-269-billion-in-benefit-from-chattanoogas-community-fiber-optic-network/", "type": "Academic study (utility-published)", "published": "2020", "asOf": "2010-2020", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "The public-option existence proof. Study author (Lobo, UT Chattanooga) is independent, but the study was commissioned and published by the utility itself, hence Moderate rather than High. The FCC 2015 record separately documents incumbents Comcast and AT&T sharply improving speeds in EPB territory after the public network launched.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Rather than compete, incumbent ISPs lobbied for state preemption: a Tennessee law confines EPB to its electric footprint (the industry and state successfully sued in 2016 to block FCC preemption), and Missouri's 1997 HB 620, credited to Southwestern Bell's lobbying, bars municipalities from offering broadband at all. Roughly 16 states restrict municipal broadband.", "source": "Sixth Circuit, Tennessee v. FCC (2016); BroadbandNow state preemption reports", "url": "https://broadbandnow.com/report/municipal-broadband-roadblocks", "type": "Court record and industry research", "published": "2016-2020", "asOf": "2020", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The documented sabotage pattern: when the public option wins on price and quality, incumbents move the fight from the market to the statehouse. Missouri Municipal League's preemption request failed at the Supreme Court in 2004 (Nixon v. Missouri Municipal League).", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "U.S. urban rail costs are a policy failure, not geology: New York's Second Avenue Subway cost 8-12 times the European baseline (about $2.6B per mile vs. Madrid's $320M and Paris's $160M), with soft costs at 21% of construction against a 7-8% international norm, driven by consultant reliance, procurement design, and litigation-priced review.", "source": "NYU Marron Institute, Transit Costs Project (11,000 km of rail across 50+ countries)", "url": "https://transitcosts.com/transit-costs-study-final-report/", "type": "Academic research (comparative database)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The three fixes map directly onto existing platform doctrine: fast certain review for clean transit (voice not veto), international procurement practice, and in-house public capacity instead of rented consultant judgment.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "Medellin's Metrocable gondola lines cost roughly $12-25 million per kilometer to build, a small fraction of urban rail costs, and the integrated cable-car network carries over 200,000 passengers a day (3,000-4,000 per hour per line) on an ordinary transit fare.", "source": "World Bank (Latin America blog) and Metrocable system records", "url": "https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/latinamerica/cable-cars-economically-viable-public-transport-system-amlat-cities", "type": "International institution", "published": "2015-2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The capacity-per-dollar benchmark: transit for steep, underserved neighborhoods at costs low enough to actually get built. First line: $24M for 2 km, opened 2004.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "In Medellin's Metrocable natural experiment, neighborhoods that received the gondola transit and accompanying public investment saw homicides decline 66% more than matched control neighborhoods (rate ratio 0.33), and resident-reported violence fell 75% more.", "source": "Cerda et al., Reducing Violence by Transforming Neighborhoods, American Journal of Epidemiology (2012)", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3353133/", "type": "Peer-reviewed research (natural experiment)", "published": "2012", "asOf": "2003-2008", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Built-environment evidence for the safe-city planks: connecting isolated neighborhoods to the city's opportunity structure is violence prevention, the same protective-factors logic as greening, lighting, and summer jobs.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-06", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "Of roughly 33,000 people arrested in Bogota in 2025, fewer than 10 percent ended up in jail, per the city police chief, with repeat offenders arrested as many as 20 times; nationally, fewer than 1 in 6 arrested Colombians is imprisoned.", "source": "Bogota Metropolitan Police (via The Bogota Post); InSight Crime", "url": "https://thebogotapost.com/bogota-reduces-homicides-in-2025/54298/", "type": "Official statements via journalism", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "The certainty counterexample behind the impunity plank: mass arrests with no follow-through deter no one. Figures are the police chief's own; Moderate because they reach us through press coverage rather than a published dataset.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "In Bogota's 2025 Perception and Victimization Survey (20,038 respondents), 14.9 percent reported being victimized by crime while 66 percent believed insecurity was rising, down from a peak of 87.7 percent in 2021.", "source": "Bogota Chamber of Commerce, Encuesta de Percepcion y Victimizacion (27th edition)", "url": "https://www.ccb.org.co/en/of-interest/comunications/bogota-shows-improvement-in-victimization-and-security-perception-indicators-in-2025", "type": "Institutional survey (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The perception-reality gap quantified: perceived safety is a political fact that diverges from victimization, so the platform tracks and answers both.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "The U.S. child poverty rate (Supplemental Poverty Measure) fell to a record low of 5.2% in 2021, less than half its 2020 level, driven substantially by the expanded Child Tax Credit and other relief.", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau", "url": "https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2022/09/record-drop-in-child-poverty.html", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Reflects temporary pandemic-era CTC expansion; rate rose after the expansion lapsed.", "addedDate": "2026-07-13", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "A National Academies of Sciences report found that federal tax credits, chiefly the temporarily expanded Child Tax Credit, lifted more than 2 million children out of poverty in 2021.", "source": "National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine", "url": "https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/federal-tax-credits-in-2021-lifted-more-than-2-million-children-out-of-poverty-says-new-report", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Consensus study committee report; estimate tied to the one-year CTC expansion.", "addedDate": "2026-07-13", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Analysis from Columbia University's Center on Poverty and Social Policy documents that the 2021 Child Tax Credit expansion drove a substantial reduction in child poverty, with monthly payments cutting child poverty when in effect.", "source": "Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy", "url": "https://povertycenter.columbia.edu/publication/2021-child-poverty-reduction", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Research nonprofit", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Academic research center; useful precedent for CTC design effects.", "addedDate": "2026-07-13", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that registered apprenticeships in many skilled occupations lead to high median wages, providing an earn-while-you-learn pathway with strong wage outcomes across selected occupations.", "source": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics", "url": "https://www.bls.gov/careeroutlook/2019/article/apprenticeships-outlook-wages-update.htm", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2019", "asOf": "2018-2019 occupational wage data", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "Occupation-level wage figures; not a randomized program evaluation, and data are pre-2020.", "addedDate": "2026-07-13", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 1, "claim": "Voter turnout in Alaska's 2022 election under its new ranked-choice voting and open-primary system fell in line with the national decline rather than being driven by the reform, suggesting RCV did not depress turnout.", "source": "Sightline Institute", "url": "https://www.sightline.org/2024/09/03/mirroring-the-nation-voter-turnout-dropped-in-alaskas-2022-election/", "sourceNote": "", "type": "Think tank", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2022 election cycle", "confidence": "Moderate", "notes": "Advocacy-leaning explainer of Alaska turnout data; use as context, corroborate with official Alaska turnout statistics.", "addedDate": "2026-07-13", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "IPCC AR6: holding warming near 1.5C requires global emissions to peak before 2025 and fall about 43% by 2030 from 2019 levels, reaching net-zero CO2 in the early 2050s.", "source": "IPCC Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers (2023)", "url": "https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/summary-for-policymakers/", "type": "International scientific assessment (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The emissions spine of the climate brief. The platform commits to IPCC assessments as its baseline climate science.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025: current policies put the world on track for about 2.8C of warming; new pledges lower projections only to 2.3-2.5C, and a 1.5C path now requires emissions to fall 55% below 2019 levels by 2035.", "source": "UN Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report 2025 (Off Target)", "url": "https://www.unep.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2025", "type": "International scientific assessment (primary)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The honest overshoot scoreboard the brief refuses to soften; the health co-benefits case is built to survive it.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "87% of Americans favor term limits for members of Congress and 79% favor maximum age limits for federal elected officials (74% for Supreme Court justices).", "source": "Pew Research Center, How Americans View Proposals to Change the Political System (2023)", "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2023/09/19/how-americans-view-proposals-to-change-the-political-system/", "type": "Survey research (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Consensus data, not adoption: the platform notes the political-science evidence on term limits is mixed and says so rather than chasing the poll.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 2, "claim": "86% of Americans, including 87% of Republicans and 88% of Democrats, favor banning stock trading in individual companies by members of Congress; 87% would extend the ban to the President and Supreme Court justices.", "source": "Program for Public Consultation, University of Maryland", "url": "https://publicconsultation.org/united-states/stock-trading-by-members-of-congress/", "type": "Survey research (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Adopted: a stock-trading ban is anti-extraction applied to Congress itself and fits the accountability agenda.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "85% of Americans say Social Security benefits should be maintained or increased even if it requires raising taxes, with majorities across parties (about 3 in 4 Republicans, 9 in 10 Democrats); raising the payroll tax cap is among the most supported fixes.", "source": "National Academy of Social Insurance / AARP survey", "url": "https://www.aarp.org/social-security/survey-raising-taxes/", "type": "Survey research", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Public-consensus backing for the cap fix the platform already carries (ask m3 and the fiscal model row).", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-16", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "The teacher pay penalty hit a record 26.9% in 2024: teachers earn 26.9% less in weekly wages than similarly educated professionals, are behind their peers in all 50 states, and their real wages fell 5.3% since 1996 while other college graduates' rose about 30%.", "source": "Economic Policy Institute and CEPR, The Teacher Pay Penalty Reached a Record High in 2024", "url": "https://www.epi.org/publication/the-teacher-pay-penalty-reached-a-record-high-in-2024-three-decades-of-leaving-public-school-teachers-behind/", "type": "Research nonprofit (labor-aligned)", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Adjusted for education, experience, and demographics; total-compensation gap including benefits is smaller (-17.1%) and the row says so. The anchor stat for the invest-in-people principle.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-17", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "Medellin's Green Corridors transformed the edges of 18 roads and 12 waterways into a connected green network, lowering average city temperatures by about 2C (up to 4C in corridor areas) while improving air quality and biodiversity; the program won the 2019 Ashden Award.", "source": "UN Environment Programme (UNEP)", "url": "https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/medellin-shows-how-nature-based-solutions-can-keep-people-and-planet-cool", "type": "International institution", "published": "2021", "asOf": "2016-2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The nature-as-infrastructure anchor for the new-places brief: cooling as designed public infrastructure, not landscaping.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-20", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "Census Bureau 2023 projections: U.S. population peaks around 370 million in 2080 under the middle series, then declines to 366 million by 2100; the low-immigration scenario peaks at 346 million in 2043, the high reaches 435 million.", "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, 2023 National Population Projections", "url": "https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2023 projections", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Why the new-places program is justified by redistribution and climate displacement, not national growth, and why pilots beat a predetermined wave of cities.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-20", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "projection", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "China developed more than 3,800 new towns over four decades that came to house over 150 million people, alongside persistent, polarized controversy over underoccupied ghost cities, speculative finance, and planning methodology.", "source": "Xu, China's New Towns in Controversy: A Literature Review, Journal of Planning Literature (2022)", "url": "https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/08854122211051614", "type": "Peer-reviewed research (literature review)", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Both halves of the leapfrog lesson: governments can build at civilizational scale, and demand-blind building produces the failure the brief's stop rules exist to prevent.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-20", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "U.S. controlled-environment agriculture operations more than doubled from 1,476 (2009) to 2,994 (2019), with production up 56%; energy for climate control is a major share of operating budgets, and crop range remains limited.", "source": "USDA Economic Research Service, EIB-264 (2024)", "url": "https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/charts-of-note/chart-detail?chartId=109422", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2009-2019", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Why the brief treats vertical farming as a fresh-produce layer within regional food resilience rather than food independence.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-20", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 4, "claim": "Houston cut homelessness by more than 60% since 2011 through a coordinated Housing First system, housing over 30,000 people, the best performance among America's ten largest cities.", "source": "Coalition for the Homeless of Houston; CBS News reporting on the Houston system", "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-houston-successfully-reduced-homelessness/", "type": "Journalism (system-data based)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2011-2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The Housing First anchor: house people first, attach services after. Point-in-time counts confirm continued decline through 2024.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "Connecticut's permit-to-purchase handgun law (background check plus safety training) was associated with a 40% reduction in firearm homicides; Missouri's repeal of its similar law was associated with a 25% increase, with later analyses finding larger effects and increased firearm suicides.", "source": "Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research (Webster et al.)", "url": "https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2015/connecticut-handgun-licensing-law-associated-with-40-percent-drop-in-gun-homicides", "type": "Peer-reviewed research (quasi-experimental)", "published": "2015", "asOf": "1995-2015", "confidence": "High", "notes": "A both-directions policy experiment, the platform's strongest evidence shape; basis of the license-the-purchase plank.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 7, "claim": "Across the postwar era the U.S. economy grew about 1.8 percentage points faster per year under Democratic than Republican presidents, with more jobs and higher investment; the authors attribute the gap substantially to oil shocks, productivity, and international conditions rather than provably to policy.", "source": "Blinder & Watson, Presidents and the US Economy, American Economic Review (2016)", "url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257%2Faer.20140913", "type": "Peer-reviewed research", "published": "2016", "asOf": "1947-2013", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Carried with the authors' own causal caveat stated in the brief; a performance record, not a causal proof of any single policy.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Systematic reviews consistently find VA health care as good as or better than non-VA care on most quality measures, and veteran homelessness has fallen by roughly half since 2010, with the HUD-VASH housing-voucher-plus-services program a key driver.", "source": "Journal of General Internal Medicine systematic reviews; CBPP on HUD-VASH", "url": "https://www.cbpp.org/blog/veterans-homelessness-cut-in-half-since-2010", "type": "Peer-reviewed reviews + policy analysis", "published": "2016-2023", "asOf": "2010-2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The standing federal proof that public healthcare delivery and Housing First both work.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "The Turnaway Study found women denied abortions were four times more likely to live below the poverty line and three times more likely to be unemployed, with worse outcomes for existing children; receiving care produced none of the predicted harms, and restrictions are associated with higher maternal mortality.", "source": "ANSIRH (UCSF), The Turnaway Study; related peer-reviewed maternal-outcomes literature", "url": "https://www.ansirh.org/research/ongoing/turnaway-study", "type": "Peer-reviewed research (longitudinal cohort)", "published": "2020-2023", "asOf": "2008-2020", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The evidence basis of the reproductive-healthcare plank: argued as the health and economic question the data shows it is.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Americans owe about $1.7 trillion in federal student loans across roughly 43 million borrowers; the federal portfolio has more than tripled over 15 years.", "source": "Congressional Research Service / Federal Reserve data", "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10158", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2026", "asOf": "2026", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The scale anchor for the debt-forgiveness and debt-free-college planks.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "In Stockton's SEED randomized trial, recipients of unconditional $500 monthly payments obtained full-time employment at more than twice the control group's rate in year one (28% to 40%), with reduced anxiety and depression and less income volatility.", "source": "Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED), independent RCT evaluation", "url": "https://www.stocktondemonstration.org/", "type": "Randomized controlled trial", "published": "2021", "asOf": "2019-2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The guaranteed-income evidence the education brief cites as an evaluated option kept honestly open, small-scale and city-level, not a national commitment.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Section 14(c) certificates still allow roughly 700 employers to pay about 39,000 disabled workers below the minimum wage, about half at $3.50/hour or less and nearly 5% at 25 cents or less; 25 states have restricted or ended the practice, and a federal phase-out was proposed in 2024 and withdrawn in 2025.", "source": "U.S. Department of Labor 14(c) data via GAO; Federal Register rulemaking record", "url": "https://www.gao.gov/blog/some-states-are-eliminating-subminimum-wages-people-disabilities-what-does-mean-workers", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024-2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The disability-rights plank's anchor: finish the phase-out federally with transition support.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "Of an estimated 8.3 billion metric tons of plastic ever produced, about 9% of the resulting waste had been recycled as of 2015, 12% incinerated, and 79% accumulated in landfills or the natural environment.", "source": "Geyer, Jambeck & Law, Science Advances (2017)", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1700782", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2017", "asOf": "2015 data", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The global baseline behind the waste plank: recycling as practiced captures a small fraction of plastic.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "The U.S. recycled 8.7% of plastics generated in 2018 (3 of 35.7 million tons); 27 million tons of plastic went to landfills, 18.5% of all municipal waste landfilled.", "source": "EPA, Facts and Figures: Plastics Material-Specific Data", "url": "https://www.epa.gov/facts-and-figures-about-materials-waste-and-recycling/plastics-material-specific-data", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2020 (2018 data)", "asOf": "2018", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Most recent official national rate; counts exported material as recycled, so the true domestic figure is lower.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "Internal plastics-industry documents and former officials show the industry promoted recycling to the public from the late 1980s while privately doubting it could ever be economically viable; a former Society of the Plastics Industry president said the public believing recycling worked meant less environmental concern.", "source": "NPR / PBS Frontline investigation, \"Plastic Wars\"", "url": "https://www.npr.org/2020/09/11/897692090/how-big-oil-misled-the-public-into-believing-plastic-would-be-recycled", "type": "Investigative journalism", "published": "2020", "asOf": "2020", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Named sources on the record plus internal documents; the receipts behind the producer-responsibility plank.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "California's September 2024 suit alleges ExxonMobil deceived the public on plastics recyclability for decades, including marketing 'advanced recycling' in which 92% of processed plastic waste became fuel that is burned rather than recycled plastic.", "source": "California Attorney General, People v. ExxonMobil complaint", "url": "https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-sues-exxonmobil-deceiving-public-recyclability-plastic", "type": "Litigation record", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "Allegations in active litigation, not adjudicated findings; carried with that label. The AG is a party to the case.", "sourceNote": "Filing party is an interested source for its own allegations.", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "Ten states have container-deposit laws; the two with a 10-cent deposit lead redemption (Michigan averaging roughly 90%+ for most of its history, Oregon 87% recently), far above recycling rates in non-deposit states, though rates have slipped since the pandemic.", "source": "Container Recycling Institute / Bottle Bill Resource Guide; state agency data", "url": "https://www.bottlebill.org/index.php/current-and-proposed-laws/usa/michigan", "type": "Nonprofit data (state-sourced)", "published": "2021-2023", "asOf": "2023", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "The proven tool behind the national deposit-return plank; deposit size tracks redemption. CRI advocates for deposit laws; the underlying redemption figures come from state agencies.", "sourceNote": "CRI advocates for deposit laws; underlying redemption figures come from state agencies.", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 5, "claim": "The first human biomonitoring study for plastic in blood found quantifiable microplastic particles in 17 of 22 healthy adult donors (77%), most commonly PET from drink bottles.", "source": "Leslie et al., Environment International (2022)", "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412022001258", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2022", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Small first-detection study (n=22); establishes presence in blood, not health effects. The stakes line of the waste plank, carried with that limit.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "72% of Americans support nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ people (2025), including 56% of Republicans, 76% of independents, and 90% of Democrats; support has exceeded 70% for a decade.", "source": "PRRI American Values Atlas", "url": "https://prri.org/research/mapping-support-for-lgbtq-rights-across-the-50-states-insights-from-prris-2025-american-values-atlas/", "type": "Survey research", "published": "2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The consensus base under the Equality Act plank; one of the least divided civil-rights questions in the country.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "In the largest annual survey of LGBTQ+ youth mental health (18,000+ respondents ages 13-24), 39% seriously considered suicide in the past year, and young people in very accepting communities attempted suicide at less than half the rate of those in very unaccepting communities.", "source": "The Trevor Project, 2024 National Survey", "url": "https://www.thetrevorproject.org/survey-2024/", "type": "Nonprofit survey", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "Run by a suicide-prevention advocacy nonprofit and read with that provenance in mind; the acceptance-as-protection association is consistent with the peer-reviewed family-acceptance literature. Cross-sectional, association not causation.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "After Portugal decriminalized personal drug possession in 2001 and invested in treatment, new HIV diagnoses among people who inject drugs fell from over 1,000/year (2001) to under 20 by the late 2010s, and its drug-induced death rate is among the lowest in the EU.", "source": "EMCDDA country data via Transform Drug Policy Foundation case study", "url": "https://transformdrugs.org/blog/drug-decriminalisation-in-portugal-setting-the-record-straight", "type": "Policy analysis (official data)", "published": "2021", "asOf": "2018-2021", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "Decriminalization plus health investment, not decriminalization alone; the case study is by a reform-advocacy group but rests on official EU monitoring data.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "interested", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "In the peer-reviewed evaluation of Seattle's Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD) program, participants had 58% lower odds of arrest and 39% lower odds of felony charges versus controls over the longer term (n=318).", "source": "Collins, Lonczak & Clifasefi, Evaluation and Program Planning (2017)", "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/28531654/", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2017", "asOf": "2014 data", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Nonrandomized comparison, stated plainly; the strongest US evidence for pre-booking diversion, now replicated in dozens of jurisdictions.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "state-local" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "In the Dunedin birth cohort followed to age 38 (n=1,037), persistent cannabis use begun in adolescence was associated with an average 8-point IQ decline from childhood to adulthood that did not fully recover after cessation; adult-onset users showed no comparable decline.", "source": "Meier et al., PNAS (2012)", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1206820109", "type": "Peer-reviewed", "published": "2012", "asOf": "cohort to 2011", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "Carried on the platform side of the ledger AGAINST our own cannabis plank, per the honesty rule. A published critique argues socioeconomic confounding may explain part of the effect; the adolescent-risk signal is why the plank includes age limits, potency rules, and a named tripwire on adolescent use.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "causal", "scope": "international" } }, { "pillarNum": 8, "claim": "Support for legalizing marijuana was 68-70% of US adults in 2020-2024 Gallup polling and 64% in October 2025, with majorities across all age groups; 24 states have legalized recreational use.", "source": "Gallup", "url": "https://news.gallup.com/poll/514007/grassroots-support-legalizing-marijuana-hits-record.aspx", "type": "Survey research", "published": "2023-2025", "asOf": "2025", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The consensus base under the cannabis plank, carried with the 2025 dip included rather than cherry-picking the peak.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "The four largest firms control about 82% of beef, 54% of poultry, and 66% of pork processing, up from roughly 25-35% in the late 1970s and 1980s.", "source": "White House / USDA, meat-processing concentration briefing (2021)", "url": "https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/blog/2021/09/08/addressing-concentration-in-the-meat-processing-industry-to-lower-food-prices-for-american-families/", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2021", "asOf": "2021", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The concentration behind the farmer-squeeze plank; the same four firms set prices on ranchers and consumers.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "US farms fell about 7% between 2017 and 2022 to 1.9 million, the average producer age rose to 58.1, and farms received roughly 16 cents of each consumer food dollar.", "source": "USDA 2022 Census of Agriculture; USDA ERS Food Dollar Series", "url": "https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Highlights/2024/Census22_HL_FarmProducers_FINAL.pdf", "type": "Government (primary)", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2022-2023", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The disappearing-farmer facts: fewer farms, aging producers, a shrinking farm share of the food dollar.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "The Supreme Court ruled 9-0 in Bowman v. Monsanto (2013) that patent exhaustion does not permit a farmer to save and replant patented seed, upholding contractual and patent limits on seed saving.", "source": "Bowman v. Monsanto Co., 569 U.S. 278 (2013)", "url": "https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/12pdf/11-796_c07d.pdf", "type": "Court ruling (primary)", "published": "2013", "asOf": "2013", "confidence": "High", "notes": "Corrects the popular terminator-seed story: the constraint on replanting is legal (patent and contract), not a biological kill-switch. The genetic terminator was patented but never commercialized.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "About 70% of medically important antibiotics in the US are sold for use in food-producing animals, a driver of antimicrobial resistance in human medicine.", "source": "FDA ADUFA antimicrobial sales reports, via CIDRAP/NRDC analysis", "url": "https://www.fda.gov/industry/animal-drug-user-fee-act-adufa/questions-and-answers-summary-report-antimicrobials-sold-or-distributed-use-food-producing-animals", "type": "Government data (primary)", "published": "2023", "asOf": "2022", "confidence": "Medium", "notes": "Sales, not use, and shares vary by year; the public-health case behind curbing routine CAFO antibiotic use. Advocacy groups aggregate the FDA figures.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-19", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } }, { "pillarNum": 3, "claim": "Average annual employer-coverage premiums in 2024: $25,572 family / $8,951 single, with workers contributing about $6,296 (family) and $1,368 (single); average single deductible $1,787. National per-capita out-of-pocket spending was about $1,632 in 2024.", "source": "KFF 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey; CMS National Health Expenditure data", "url": "https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2024-employer-health-benefits-survey/", "type": "Survey + government data", "published": "2024", "asOf": "2024", "confidence": "High", "notes": "The current-cost side of the Ledger household tables v0; the illustrative rate there is a labeled placeholder, not a scored design.", "sourceNote": "", "addedDate": "2026-07-20", "profile": { "independence": "independent", "claimType": "descriptive", "scope": "national" } } ] }