{
  "_comment": "The Ledger's ten-year table, v1. RULES: a number appears only if an official scorekeeper (CBO, JCT, SSA actuaries) or a clearly labeled independent estimate published it; windows differ by score and are stated per row; rows without scores say notYetScored rather than inventing figures. Figures in billions of dollars over the stated window.",
  "version": "v1.2",
  "asOf": "2026-07-16",
  "rules": "Scorekeeper-anchored or clearly labeled; no invented numbers; unscored rows stay blank and say so; Medicare for All presented separately as a design-dependent shift, never summed into the table. All rows are read against one canonical 2026-2035 window; rows whose official score used an earlier decade say so in a windowNote and are treated as order-of-magnitude for the canonical window, so totals remain approximate, never a precise sum.",
  "revenue": [
    {
      "id": "irs",
      "title": "Rebuild IRS enforcement (collect what is owed)",
      "low": 100,
      "central": 127,
      "high": 200,
      "unit": "$B net deficit reduction / decade per $80B funding tranche",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "CBO, The Effects of Increased Funding for the IRS (net of costs)",
        "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57444"
      },
      "notes": "Gross revenue about $200-207B per tranche; net about $127B. Returns diminish with scale, which is why this line is a fraction of the $606B annual net tax gap, not the whole pot.",
      "windowNote": "Scored on a ten-year window consistent with 2026-2035 reading."
    },
    {
      "id": "sscap",
      "title": "Social Security cap fix (tax work and high earnings alike)",
      "low": 800,
      "central": 1200,
      "high": 1600,
      "unit": "$B / decade, design-dependent",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "CBO budget options via CRFB: 90% taxable max ($0.8T) to payroll tax above $250k without benefit credit ($1.6T)",
        "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60955"
      },
      "notes": "The design choice (donut above $250k vs. raising the taxable maximum, and whether benefits credit) sets where in the range this lands. Also closes 20-70% of the 75-year solvency gap. Honest treatment: this is dedicated trust-fund revenue that strengthens Social Security, not general revenue available for unrelated programs, so it is excluded from the general-fund comparison below.",
      "windowNote": "Scored on a ten-year window consistent with 2026-2035 reading."
    },
    {
      "id": "carbon",
      "title": "Pollution price (gross, before dividends)",
      "low": 769,
      "central": 865,
      "high": 1000,
      "unit": "$B gross / decade at CBO's $25/ton +5%/yr option",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "CBO budget option: Impose a Tax on Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (2023-2032)",
        "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/58638"
      },
      "notes": "The platform's design returns this to households as dividends, so the NET budget effect is approximately zero by design. Shown because the gross flow is what funds the dividends, and higher rates toward the EPA damage benchmark raise it.",
      "windowNote": "Scored on a ten-year window consistent with 2026-2035 reading."
    },
    {
      "id": "drugs",
      "title": "Expand drug price negotiation (HR 3-scale)",
      "low": 400,
      "central": 456,
      "high": 456,
      "unit": "$B lower federal spending / decade (2020-2029 score)",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "CBO, H.R. 3 Elijah E. Cummings Lower Drug Costs Now Act (negotiation title)",
        "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/55936"
      },
      "notes": "The current SMART Prices vehicle is narrower than HR 3 and has no comparable public score yet; the HR 3 score is the anchor for negotiation at scale. CBO notes innovation trade-offs in the underlying model.",
      "windowNote": "Scored on a ten-year window consistent with 2026-2035 reading."
    },
    {
      "id": "pvt",
      "title": "Tax Code Public Value Test (review of ~$2.2T/yr FY2025 in expenditures)",
      "low": null,
      "central": null,
      "high": null,
      "unit": "not yet scored",
      "status": "notYetScored",
      "source": null,
      "notes": "A review process, not a specified repeal list, so no honest score exists until specific preferences are named. The $2.2T (FY2025) annual total is the universe under review, not a revenue claim."
    },
    {
      "id": "improper",
      "title": "Improper payments reduction",
      "low": null,
      "central": null,
      "high": null,
      "unit": "not yet scored",
      "status": "notYetScored",
      "source": null,
      "notes": "The $186B FY2025 GAO estimate includes underpayments and documentation failures, not a recoverable pot; savings depend on program-by-program fixes no scorekeeper has priced as a package."
    }
  ],
  "spending": [
    {
      "id": "childallowance",
      "title": "Permanent child allowance (2021-design CTC)",
      "low": 1400,
      "central": 1600,
      "high": 1600,
      "unit": "$B / decade (FY2022-2031 score)",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "JCT, Macroeconomic Analysis of a Permanent Child Tax Credit Expansion (with CBO; ~$1.6T FY2022-2031)",
        "url": "https://www.jct.gov/getattachment/655c151f-fa6a-4660-a961-05d028c2d000/Child-Tax-Credit-Expansion.pdf"
      },
      "notes": "The low end reflects designs with slower phase-ins scored below the full 2021 structure. The documented return: child poverty at 5.2% while it ran.",
      "windowNote": "Official score window FY2022-2031; carried as order-of-magnitude for 2026-2035 (likely understated)."
    },
    {
      "id": "childcare",
      "title": "Childcare cap and universal pre-K",
      "low": 380,
      "central": 382,
      "high": 400,
      "unit": "$B / decade (2022-2031 score of the BBB design)",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "CBO, child care and universal preschool provisions ($381.5B, 2022-2031)",
        "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57630"
      },
      "notes": "Scored design differs in detail from the Child Care for Working Families Act; treated as the scale anchor until the current bill is scored.",
      "windowNote": "Official score window 2022-2031 (BBB design); carried as order-of-magnitude for 2026-2035."
    },
    {
      "id": "paidleave",
      "title": "Paid family and medical leave (FAMILY Act)",
      "low": 225,
      "central": 547,
      "high": 547,
      "unit": "$B gross / decade (CBO score of H.R. 1185)",
      "status": "scored",
      "source": {
        "label": "CBO, H.R. 1185 FAMILY Act ($547B gross; 0.4% payroll tax offsets ~$319B; net ~$228B)",
        "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56129"
      },
      "notes": "The bill's own payroll tax covers most of the gross cost. The low end reflects later state-experience estimates (~$35B/yr at full phase-in) with lower take-up than CBO assumed. The general-fund comparison below uses the ~$228B NET figure, since the bill's dedicated payroll tax covers the rest.",
      "windowNote": "CBO score of H.R.1185 on its own window; carried as order-of-magnitude for 2026-2035."
    },
    {
      "id": "meals",
      "title": "Universal school meals",
      "low": 110,
      "central": 200,
      "high": 300,
      "unit": "$B additional / decade",
      "status": "estimated",
      "source": {
        "label": "Non-CBO estimates: +$11B/yr (incremental) to ~$30B/yr total universal provision (Baker Institute); current NSLP ~$17.7B/yr",
        "url": "https://www.bakerinstitute.org/research/address-child-hunger-through-free-school-meals-all"
      },
      "notes": "No official score exists; labeled estimated, not scored. Administrative savings from ending eligibility verification partially offset."
    },
    {
      "id": "tutoring",
      "title": "National tutoring corps",
      "low": null,
      "central": null,
      "high": null,
      "unit": "not yet scored",
      "status": "notYetScored",
      "source": null,
      "notes": "No federal vehicle has been scored; the brief scales it with its evaluations, so the honest number waits for the design."
    },
    {
      "id": "socialhousing",
      "title": "Social housing and public developer",
      "low": null,
      "central": null,
      "high": null,
      "unit": "not yet scored",
      "status": "notYetScored",
      "source": null,
      "notes": "Cost turns entirely on scale and delivery discipline; the housing brief conditions scaling on delivery performance, so v1 does not guess."
    },
    {
      "id": "service",
      "title": "National service build-out",
      "low": null,
      "central": null,
      "high": null,
      "unit": "not yet scored",
      "status": "notYetScored",
      "source": null,
      "notes": "Staged by design: costs scale with the evaluated voluntary expansion, and the mandate step only exists if the build-out proves it. Program-scale benefit-cost studies exist; a universal score does not. Order-of-magnitude bound, stated not scored: at the brief's stipend and education-award levels, four million participants implies at least ~$100B/yr before health coverage, housing, and administration."
    },
    {
      "id": "innovreturn",
      "title": "Innovation pillar net cost (public-return offsets)",
      "low": null,
      "central": null,
      "high": null,
      "unit": "not yet scored",
      "status": "notYetScored",
      "source": {
        "label": "Innovation brief (design intent)",
        "url": "/briefs/innovation"
      },
      "notes": "The innovation brief describes the pillar as designed to be largely self-financing through public-return terms on subsidies, drug-pricing savings, and dividend flows. That is design intent, not a score; per the blank-rows rule, the row stays blank until specific mechanisms are scored."
    }
  ],
  "shift": {
    "id": "m4a",
    "title": "Universal healthcare (Medicare for All path)",
    "federal": "+$1,500B to +$3,000B per year by 2030 (CBO illustrative single-payer options)",
    "national": "Total national health spending changes between -$700B and +$300B per year while covering everyone",
    "status": "scoredSeparately",
    "source": {
      "label": "CBO, single-payer working paper and economic analysis",
      "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56811"
    },
    "notes": "Never summed into the table: this is a design-dependent shift of existing private spending (premiums, out-of-pocket) onto the federal ledger, not new consumption on the scale of the federal number. Summing it with the rows above would double-count what families already pay. The binding design constraint: most working families must pay less in new taxes than they now pay in premiums and out-of-pocket costs. The platform's named financing design now lives in the healthcare brief: an employer maintenance-of-effort conversion phasing into payroll contributions, with progressive surtax elements at end-state; exact rates await official scoring against the published family-cost constraint."
  },
  "window": "Canonical window: 2026-2035. Rows scored by CBO/JCT on earlier decades keep their official numbers and carry a windowNote; treating them as 2026-2035 order-of-magnitude likely UNDERSTATES nominal costs (inflation and wage growth), which is the conservative direction for spending rows.",
  "household": {
    "_comment": "v0 household tables rendered on the Ledger. Current-cost side verified; illustrative rate is a placeholder, not a commitment.",
    "sources": [
      {
        "label": "KFF 2024 Employer Health Benefits Survey (premiums, worker contributions, deductibles)",
        "url": "https://www.kff.org/health-costs/2024-employer-health-benefits-survey/"
      },
      {
        "label": "CMS National Health Expenditure data (per-capita out-of-pocket, 2024)",
        "url": "https://www.cms.gov/data-research/statistics-trends-and-reports/national-health-expenditure-data/nhe-fact-sheet"
      }
    ],
    "figures": {
      "familyWorkerPremium": 6296,
      "singleWorkerPremium": 1368,
      "avgSingleDeductible": 1787,
      "perCapitaOOP": 1632
    },
    "illustrativeRate": 0.07,
    "illustrativeNote": "Placeholder payroll-side rate used only to expose design constraints (notably the single-worker case); the committed rule is the constraint, not the rate."
  },
  "scenario": {
    "_comment": "Bounded revenue scenario v0. Components are CBO Budget Options (Dec 2024) increments; scaling an increment is labeled and approximate because independently scored options do not sum precisely.",
    "window": "2026-2035, matching the canonical window",
    "caveat": "CBO scores each option independently; stacked options interact and the true combined revenue is somewhat lower than the arithmetic sum. These are bounds for honest planning, not point estimates, and none of these indicative rates is yet a scored platform bill.",
    "alreadyScored": {
      "note": "General-fund rows already in the table above (IRS enforcement first tranche + drug negotiation). The pollution price is excluded here because its revenue returns as dividends; the Social Security cap fix is excluded because it is trust-fund revenue.",
      "totalB": 583
    },
    "gapB": 1800,
    "cases": [
      {
        "name": "Low",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Top-four-bracket rates +1 point",
            "basis": "CBO option, ~$223B/decade",
            "b": 223,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60937"
          },
          {
            "title": "Corporate rate 21% to 24% (+3 points)",
            "basis": "3x CBO's +1-point option (~$140B each), linear scaling labeled",
            "b": 420,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60956"
          },
          {
            "title": "Capital gains and dividends +2 points",
            "basis": "CBO option, ~$103B/decade",
            "b": 103,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60940"
          }
        ],
        "newB": 746,
        "residualB": 1071,
        "reading": "Closes roughly 40% of the scored gap; the remainder is deficit-financed or the spending phases slower, stated below."
      },
      {
        "name": "Central",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Top-four-bracket rates +2 points",
            "basis": "2x CBO's +1-point top-bracket option, linear scaling labeled",
            "b": 445,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60937"
          },
          {
            "title": "Corporate rate 21% to 28% (+7 points)",
            "basis": "7x CBO's +1-point option, linear scaling labeled; interactions reduce this",
            "b": 980,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60956"
          },
          {
            "title": "Capital gains and dividends +2 points",
            "basis": "CBO option",
            "b": 103,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60940"
          },
          {
            "title": "IRS enforcement, second funding tranche",
            "basis": "CBO's estimate per $80B tranche, from the table above",
            "b": 127,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/publication/57444"
          }
        ],
        "newB": 1655,
        "residualB": 162,
        "reading": "Brings the scored package near balance before interactions, leaving a residual on the order of $150-300B/decade once interaction effects shave the sum; the still-unscored rows (tutoring, social housing, service build-out) sit outside and phase in only as scored."
      },
      {
        "name": "High",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Everything in Central",
            "basis": "as above",
            "b": 1655,
            "url": ""
          },
          {
            "title": "All-bracket rates +1 point",
            "basis": "CBO option, ~$905B/decade; flagged: this touches middle brackets, so the platform would pair it with offsetting credits or reject it, and it is shown as a bound, not a preference",
            "b": 905,
            "url": "https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/60937"
          }
        ],
        "newB": 2560,
        "residualB": -743,
        "reading": "Covers the scored gap with headroom for the unscored rows; carried to show the ceiling of conventional rate policy, not as the plan."
      }
    ],
    "phaseIn": "Indicative sequencing: restored premium credits, school meals, and the child allowance in year one (their scores assume rapid start); childcare and paid leave phase over years two to four as systems build; rate changes effective year two; corporate phased two points per year. Unscored rows launch only when scored.",
    "ifRevenueMisses": "Priority order if revenue underperforms: the floors hold (child allowance, school meals, SNAP restoration, premium credits, the healthcare coverage floor); what slows first is the build-out layer (new-places pilots, service expansion, tutoring scale-up), explicitly and in public, rather than quiet across-the-board erosion.",
    "debtPath": "Honest statement rather than invented curve: the country enters this window on CBO's baseline plus Public Law 119-21's roughly $4.1 trillion (with debt service). The platform's scored package under the Central case is designed to be near self-financing excluding interactions and interest; the Low case adds roughly $1.1 trillion over the decade unless spending phases slower; a year-by-year debt-to-GDP path will be published when the components are scored together rather than stacked, because publishing a fake curve would violate this page's first rule."
  }
}